Laurel, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

416
FXUS65 KBYZ 301048
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
348 AM MST Thu Jan 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warmer through the work week.

- Periods of strong winds over the foothills west of Billings into
  the weekend.

- Hazardous wintry conditions from snow and wind in the
  Beartooth/Absaroka and Crazy Mountains starting Friday night.

- Pattern change to colder and wetter likely for the lower
  elevations Saturday night into Sunday.

- Unsettled, cold weather likely to stick around to start next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Friday night...

A ridge at 500 mb will bring continued mostly clear skies to the
area today. The ridge will slide eastward tonight into Friday, and
as it does so the 500 mb flow will turn more west/southwesterly
over the Northern Rockies. This flow pattern will bring increased
moisture in the middle and upper levels of the troposphere which
will result in increased middle and upper level clouds.
Eventually, the moisture will begin to produce snowfall mainly in
the Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains Friday night (70-80% chance),
though possibly in the Crazy Mountains too (50% chance). A Winter
Storm Watch begins Friday evening for the western mountains and
runs through Sunday evening for potential heavy snow
accumulations and wind. More on the mountain snow in the extended
discussion below.

Foothill winds will also be noticeable, though the areas
experiencing the strongest winds will change. For today, the
strongest surface winds will be in the Big Timber and Harlowton
areas with gusts to 30-50 mph, from west/northwest 700 mb winds
and an enhanced sea-level pressure gradient west of these
locations. The probability for wind gusts of 50 mph or greater is
near or less than 50% in these areas. Then tonight, the pattern
changes with 700 mb winds turning west/southwesterly and the SLP
gradient strengthening south of Livingston-Nye. These factors will
shift the strongest wind gusts to the Livingston and Nye areas
with gusts to 50 mph likely (80% chance) overnight and gusts to
60 mph likely (60% chance) from the early morning hours Friday
into Saturday. Because of the expected wind gusts have issued a
Wind Advisory for the Livingston area and Beartooth Foothills from
8 PM MST tonight through 9 PM MST Saturday. Strong crosswinds
will make travel difficult especially for high-profile vehicles.
Use caution and consider taking an alternate route.

For the Big Timber to Harlowton corridor Friday into Saturday,
winds will still gust to 30-50 mph but we think that the
strongest winds will occur to the south of this area.

High temperatures will generally be in the 30s and 40s today and
Friday. A few locations in the western foothills will reach the
lower 50s today. Low temperatures will range from the teens to the
30s. Temperatures will be coolest in southeast MT and warmest in
south central MT. RMS

Saturday through Thursday...

Temperatures...

Saturday will have above average temperatures with low 40s to low
50s across the region. Sunday, an upper level trough will drop down
over the western US. A frontal passage Sunday will usher in below
average 850mb temperatures bottoming out at around -20C. The cold
air looks to be shallow as there is a disconnect in 500mb heights
rising early next week while 850mb temperatures drop. At this
time, ensemble systems are in good agreement that the cooler
temperatures will have staying power even as they start to rise
the middle of next week. High temperatures will be in the 20s
Sunday before falling into the single digits for Monday and
Tuesday. High temperatures will begin to warm into the teens and
20s by Thursday. There will be persistent chances for below zero
low temperatures next week with Monday morning having the highest
chances at 50-80% for much of Southeast Montana.

Snow...

Snow will pick up over the Beartooth/Crazy mountains Friday night
and persist through the weekend. At this point models are showing
continued snow chances through next week and haven`t picked up on
favored periods of snow. This may continue as overrunning snow
events can create persistent snowfall. Feet of snow for the
Beartooth/Crazy mountains seem likely over the next week. NBM
currently has 75-100% chances for greater than 12 inches Sunday
through Tuesday. Monday will be the favored period of snow for the
lower elevations. NBM is currently giving locations west of
Rosebud a 30-50% chance for greater than 6 inches of snow Sunday
through Tuesday. Torgerson

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Breezy
conditions will persist, strongest along the western foothills
from K6S0 to K3HT with westerly gusts around 40 knots at times
Thursday. Winds pick up even more tonight into Friday for the
western foothills with winds gusting 40-50kts for K6S0 and KLVM.
STP/LT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048 031/045 032/050 023/029 004/009 001/010 000/015
    0/U 00/E    12/W    65/J    76/J    55/J    54/J
LVM 044 029/042 031/043 023/031 009/018 005/016 003/023
    0/N 00/N    35/J    55/J    76/J    66/J    55/J
HDN 048 021/044 028/050 020/031 001/012 000/011 902/016
    0/U 00/B    02/W    75/J    76/J    55/J    55/J
MLS 039 019/039 026/046 014/021 902/006 000/009 903/012
    0/U 00/B    01/B    42/J    54/J    44/J    34/J
4BQ 043 021/040 026/045 020/029 003/011 003/013 001/017
    0/U 00/B    00/B    52/J    53/J    32/J    33/J
BHK 037 016/036 022/043 013/022 906/005 905/008 906/011
    0/U 00/B    01/B    31/B    43/J    44/J    33/J
SHR 046 021/044 026/048 019/031 002/019 000/016 901/021
    0/U 00/B    01/B    54/J    64/J    33/J    33/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory in effect from 8 PM this evening to 9 PM MST
      Saturday FOR ZONES 65-66.
     Winter Storm Watch in effect from Friday afternoon through
      Sunday afternoon FOR ZONES 67-68.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings